Unexpected Answers

The lesson includes four activities which give examples of probability problems with unexpected answers. The goal is to demonstrate that people should be careful when using probability, and that some games that seem fair are not. The site includes teacher notes and links to resources. The student will make informed decisions about practical situations using probability concepts.  

Weblink address (URL): 
Unexpected Answers

Standards & Objectives

Learning objectives: 

Upon completion of this lesson, students will:

  • have seen a variety of activities demonstrating probability
  • have learned to make observations about the results of the activities
  • know about conditional probability
  • have drawn conclusions about the unexpected results of the probability activities

Lesson Variations

Blooms taxonomy level: 
Understanding

Helpful Hints

This lesson can be rearranged in several ways.
If class time is limited, choose only one of the activities and have students use the computer version only, which will give fast results while demonstrating the concepts of conditional probability thoroughly.
If more time is available, have the students try out the activities using dice, spinners, red and green chips, index cards, etc. to understand what the computer is simulating, and how quickly the trials can be run on the computer.
Combine this lesson with Conditional probability and probability of simultaneous events, which deals with conditional probability in more depth.

References

Contributors: 
Lisa Leach
Originator: 
Ayers Institute for Learning & Innovation